INSIDE TRACK:
Left coast seeks right mix: Silicon Valley is more perturbed
by competition than by stock market volatility
Financial Times; Feb 28, 2001
By LOUISE
KEHOE
The "new, new" post-internet economy is on everyone's
minds, not least those of Silicon Valley executives and
venture capitalists. Elsewhere it may seem that "new, new"
means back to the old way of measuring business success. But
the perspective from the "left coast" is quite different to
that of Wall Street.
Sanguine may be too strong a word but veterans of the
Valley, who have seen several business cycles come and go,
believe "this too will pass". Some are even pleased to see the
wheat sorted from the chaff.
But the volatility of capital markets is not their top
concern. When a group of 25 chief financial officers of
high-growth Silicon Valley companies gathered last month at
Stanford University, capital market volatility ranked last in
the top eight issues that "keep them awake at night", says
Mary Driscoll, president and editorial director of CFO
Enterprises. They worried more about product demand and their
ability to adjust spending to rapidly changing market
conditions.
Even as evidence mounts of a rapid deceleration in US
corporate information technology spending growth, the primary
issue on the minds of executives in Silicon Valley is
competition. Last week, Ed Zander, president of Sun
Microsystems, warned that earnings for the current quarter
would be about half the amount expected just three weeks
earlier, although he stressed that his company was continuing
to gain market share.
Sun's reaction to the stock market rout that has reduced
its market value by about 66 per cent over the past six months
is to spend Dollars 1.5bn (Pounds 1bn) on a stock buyback.
Is this just bravado? Do Silicon Valley executives have
their heads buried in Pacific sand dunes?
Perhaps not - as long as the likes of Sun, Cisco Systems
and other market leaders with big cash reserves can maintain a
positive cash flow by controlling expenses. Indeed, their deep
pockets give them an advantage over upstart competitors.
But what of the smaller fry? Among the hundreds of ventures
launched in Silicon Valley over the past few years, there are
certain to be many failures. In the words of Roger McNamee,
co-founder of Integral Capital Partners and one of the
Valley's top moneymen: "Cream is not the only bovine product
to float to the top in a bull market."
"We have a mess to clean up," adds Mr McNamee, who invests
in both private and publicly held companies on behalf of
clients such as Bill Gates. "There are some 400 publicly
traded internet companies, most of which are never coming
back," he says. "The decline has really hurt but it was
absolutely necessary."
Nonetheless, Mr McNamee is still investing. He focuses on
companies that address specific technology trends or sectors -
currently these are the "elimination of network bottlenecks
and the transition to real-time business applications".
"There is plenty of bandwidth. The issue is to overcome the
chokepoints," he says. That means investing in communications
equipment companies such as Cisco and Sycamore, as well as
start-ups such as Procket Networks, which is developing
high-speed network routers. Component investment plays include
PMC-Sierra and Broadcom.
Mr McNamee is also a believer in the shift from "batch"
computing to real time. This may not sound like a new idea,
until you hear him include leading e-business software
companies such as Siebel Systems and i2 among the old "batch
mode" generation.
His latest pick is SeeCommerce, a supply chain performance
management software supplier. Other e-business software
companies are also addressing the need for up-to-the-minute
business information. Examples include Metreo, which specialises in buy-side
e-commerce tools, and diCarta, which is carving out a niche in
contract management software.
The main aim is to provide the most recent information to
managers in every business department - finance, marketing,
purchasing and production - for them to make informed
decisions. It is no wonder this technology appeals to
investors at the moment. The business tools these companies
provide may be key to survival in the face of economic
uncertainty.
Nor is it a surprise that one of Silicon Valley's most
experienced venture capital investors is participating in the
next generation of e-business software.
Don Valentine has a 30-year perspective on Silicon Valley
start-up companies. The founder of Sequoia Capital, one of the
longest-established venture groups in the region, estimates
that his company has examined at least 60,000 business plans
over the years. Of these, Sequoia invested in about 600 -
among them about "10 great companies". As one of the original
investors in companies such as Apple Computer, Atari and,
later, Oracle and LSI Logic, he has the benefit of hindsight.
Whether diCarta or Metreo or the
dozen or so companies in which Sequoia has recently invested
will meet this high standard has yet to be seen. Building a
"great company" today is far harder than it was 20 or 30 years
ago, Mr Valentine thinks. Yet he and other Silicon Valley
venture capitalists continue to spend millions of dollars
trying, seemingly unperturbed by equity market investors'
disaffection with the technology sector.
After all, this too will pass.
louise@ft.com
Copyright: The Financial Times Limited